A month after the start of hostilities in the Middle East, indicators of turbulence across the US economy have become widespread.
Starting with the stock market, both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have been down for five consecutive weeks, a correction of more than 10 percent from their most recent gains. This is worse than the drop caused by the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022.
Oil prices have crossed the $100 per barrel barrier, with regular, unleaded gasoline in the United States above $4 per gallon, amid concern that reduced inventories, if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, will cause crude oil prices to rise even further.
Likewise, the increase in energy prices, in addition to the impact on the cost of transportation, is affecting other sectors and activities.
For example, the impact on agriculture is felt through the shortage and increasing cost of fertilizers, while aluminum prices have risen due to the closure of production plants in Qatar. Qatar also produces a third of the fertilizer demand.
Another key sector is plastics, with price increases in synthetic fibres, such as polyester, leading to an increase in prices for cotton as a substitute.
Almost all predictions about the consequences of the turbulence center around the slowdown in economic growth that can be caused by price increases, which can turn into an inflationary outbreak.
But all predictions are preceded by a huge conditional “if,” the hope that “the war will end soon.”
* Isaac Cohen is an international analyst and consultant, former director of the ECLAC Office in Washington. Economics and finance commentator for CNN en Español, Univision, Telemundo and other media.
