The 2.7 % rise in the year -on -year inflation index in the United States, according to the most recent data in June, could be the first sign of an upward trend that would show the initial effect of the tariff war of President Donald Trump, who insists that prices in the country are “low” and has renewed its requests for the reduction of types to the Federal Reserve.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded three tenths compared to 2.4 % registered in May, in tune with the analysts forecasts, which estimate that these data will continue to climb in the coming months when business owners can no longer avoid passing import costs to consumers.
The report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also shows an interannual increase of 2.9 % of the underlying inflation, which excludes the volatile energy rates and food.
Month by month, general inflation grew 0.3 % in June while the underlying increased by 0.2 %, after both rose only 0.1 % in the previous month.
Among the indicators that contributed the most to this rebound are the house (0.2 %), food (0.3 %) and energy (0.9 %), the latter after a 1 %drop in May.
The White House insists that these figures “confirm that inflation is on the right track” because the annualized general data are lower than those of the previous year and the rise in the underlying index “has been less than or equal to the expectations of economists every month.”
Initial evidence of the tariff impact
A deeper look at the data could give keys on the effects in the largest economy of the world of global tariffs announced by Trump in April, which could be deepened when the “reciprocal” taxes between 20 % and 40 % with which the Republican has threatened its commercial partners entered into force.
Among the categories sensitive to these taxes that experienced increases in June are the furniture and supplies of the home (1 %), clothing (0.4 %) and toys (1.8 %), the latter with the largest jump since April 2021.
In the 0.3 % rebound in food prices influenced the increases of 1.4 % of non -alcoholic beverages and 2.2 % of coffee, a item highly exposed to the relationship with Brazil, which Trump wants to impose 50 % of taxes.
According to Omair Sharif, of the Inflation Insights consultant, the prices of basic goods, excluding cars, experienced a monthly rise of 0.55 %, the largest since November 2021. This is a sign that “tariffs are beginning to make a dent,” he told Bloomberg.
However, the most palpable effects of this tariff war are to be seen, because they should usually spend months before they are reflected in the data.
The caution of the Fed and Trump’s pressure
The June figures would strengthen the caution position taken by the Federal Reserve (FED) on a future reduction in interest rates, which remain in a range of 4.25 to 4.5 % from the December 2024 cut.
The president of the FED, Jerome Powell, has insisted that the agency will remain attentive to the progress of the economy before deciding on the rates, although it has predicted “one or two descents” before the end of the year.
However, this caution has collided with Trump’s pressure, which on Tuesday redoubled its demands to the Fed to reduce the types in at least 3 points to what it considers as a “very low” inflation.
«The Federal Reserve should cut the rates in three points. Inflation is very low. A billion dollars would be saved a year!
Trump insists on the drops in almost weekly messages to Powell, which he also accuses “too slow” in terms of rates, so “degrades the credit of the United States before the rises in the stock exchange.”
