If it were not for the oil shock caused by the conflict in the Persian Gulf, consumers in the United States would be less pessimistic.
The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, in February at the beginning of the conflict, reached 56.6 points, but in October it fell to 46.3 points (https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/).
However, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimates US economic growth at 3.5 percent during the third quarter of this year, while unemployment remains low at 4.2 percent, but inflation remains high.
Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that in September the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7 percent, from 3.4 percent in August, with the cost of energy contributing more than half of the increase in prices.
Furthermore, fueling pessimism among consumers, the fact is that wages have not increased at the same rate as prices.
The average hourly wage decreased 0.5 percent in September, from 3.4 percent in August, while since August of last year the hourly wage decreased 7 percent.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll (WP 10|20|26), conducted October 9-13, revealed that 75 percent of respondents believe the economy is “not as good or worse.”
* Isaac Cohen is an international analyst and consultant, former director of the ECLAC Office in Washington. Economy and finance commentator for CNN en Español, UNIVISION, TELEMUNDO and other media.
